Overview:
- Difficult to draw conclusions from comparison to other global models (at the moment)
- Improvement of SF/SA over previous forecast method using observatory data comparison:
• X ~ 7.3%
• Y ~ 8.6%
• Z ~ 14.4%
• Average ~10% improvement
- Flow + Acceleration improves the forecast fidelity (Implemented into BGGM2013)
Comparison to Observatory data
- 120 observatories used (2011-2013)
• Quiet night time hourly mean value
• Some gaps
• Data has a latitude variation (i.e quieter at mid-latitudes)
- Compute standard deviation of fit to data of:
• SF/SA prediction
• IGRF11 prediction
• BGGM 2011 prediction
• CHAOS-4 retrospective
- Northern/Southern hemisphere examples:
• Crustal bias is removed for visualisation
• Slope of line is important
....
View the entire Presentation:
Using Core Flow to Forecast Magnetic Fields
Ciarán Beggan - British Geological Survey